Why the market moves, topic by topic
Every morning, the three to six topics that explain most of the moves, their weight, and for each asset the expected direction: up or down. With the scenarios to watch and what would confirm them.
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A thousand headlines, no hierarchy
The news feed doesn’t tell you what matters. A war, a Fed decision and a minor statistic arrive in the same tone — and it’s up to you to guess which one really moves your positions.
Macro, put in order
Every topic weighted
Each topic’s share of current moves, and how it changed since yesterday and last week.
Direction, asset by asset
For every topic, which assets it pushes up and which down — not just a list of tickers.
Scenarios, not certainties
Two to four plausible chains of events, their effect per asset, and comparable past episodes.
What to watch
For each scenario, the signals that would confirm or refute it.
What it changes in practice
Displayed probabilities come from prediction markets, with their source. None comes from the model, and nothing is advice.